I think the stuff you will be able to buy will always have a significant advantage. Web browsers and their protocols lack a lot of what they should have because of the way standardizing works with the w3 and worldwide version control.
Not really, no.
Flash is an independent program and not limited by web standards. Its embeded in a page, but other then that its it on thing.
Its just cpu power holding it back there really.
Javascript, meanwhile, is limited to some extent, but with Canvas you can practically do anything visually. With WebGL you get OpenGL/3D stuff.
Theres even new HTML5 hocks for various accelerators/sensors of a device.
Google ported Quake2 recently to javascript;
http://code.google.com/p/quake2-gwt-port/
And a few more advanced (online) demos here;
http://blog.chromium.org/2010/09/unleashing-gpu-acceleration-on-web.html
Its going to be a good 2 years for this to be standard, but most appstore stuff doesn't need more then what we have already.
Not to mention that online is fun, but continuing dependance on a network isn't - game apps fix those issues.
True.
Allthough its totaly possible on pc to cache a flash app and just play it offline, it wouldn't take much to do that on a phone.
Javascript much the same. (Google Gmail has worked offline for quite awhile).
Its just a combination of time, and what Apple allows on their phones.
Apple might block flash and argue some FUD to get away with it, but I dought they will ever do the same to Javascript.
They'll always be a step ahead and therefore be with us for quite some time. That and the ease of use, the streamlined experience and budget-friendlyness (but very profitable, make no mistake) of lots of offers will hurt nintendo.
Its profitable for Apple, jury's still out on how profitable it is for a typical App-store developer. For every low-budget big hit, theres a thousand failures.
Besides, the argument is against the low-end stuff. If that can be replaced by "free" - and it can. Then the market evaporates.
That still leaves the digital distribution market in general - which is more cost effective indeed -. So $15-30 games are still viable.
But I dont see these $2 games lasting unless they get a hell of a lot better then what we can play for free on notebooks right now.