Wii U sales analysis

There's been a lot of talk over the last few months regarding the situation with the Wii U. We all know that sales have stuttered and that many 3rd party games have been cancelled, but how bad is it? Let's look at the stats:

The graph shows the number of units shipped for the most recent Nintendo consoles in their first year of release. (Note that sales in Q1 relate to the first quarter that the console was released in, not necessarily the period Jan-Mar). It's clear that the Wii U had a very goo launch, but since then sales have been almost non-existent. A non-cumulative look at the same graph gives us an even better indication:

The first thing to note is that every Nintendo console had a dip in units shipped after the initial launch period, with the 3DS having a dip almost as severe as the Wii U. The 3DS has of course magnificently recovered following a price cut and a raft of great quality games. The fact that Nintendo didn't panic into lowering the Wii Us price is interesting, but I'm not 100% sure what it suggests. The slight increase in units shipped for the Wii U during the latest figures is encouraging (especially as the percentage increase is quite high), but the line is still both very shallow and very low. 

Looking ahead to Christmas, typically consoles will roughly double their shipping numbers in that quarter, which will leave the Wii U with worldwide 2013 consoles shipped of about 1.5 million, a pathetically small number. For comparison, the failed Dreamcast shipped over 10 million in its ~2.5 year lifespan. Honestly, things are looking pretty dire for the console to be considered a success. The good news is that Nintendo won't stop supporting the format any time soon. Nintendo are also sound financially and have a wealth of popular franchises to dig into. Clawing the console back to Gamecube (or even N64) levels of sales must be the aim, and I've no doubt that sales will pick up somewhat once the games start flooding in.

As a final word, I wanted to look at the regional sales of the Wii U:

There are a few things I can draw from this. The good news is that the numbers shipped in Japan and the US have started to increase. The change is particularly noticeable in the US for the last quarter, obviously aided by the price drop. The bad news is that shipments elsewhere (which I would assume is mostly Europe) have been non-existent for 6 months now. I don't know at what point you can consider a console "dead", but it certainly seems to be in a coma in Europe right now. The fact that Ninteno haven't slashed the price in Europe seems baffling, but I guess it's a sign that they have faith that the WIi U will recover. Either that or they've lost the plot a bit. Unfortunately I'm starting to think that it's a bit of both.

Conclusion? It really doesn't look good for the Wii U, particularly in Europe. I'm sure 2014 will see an increase in sales as the games start flooding in, but I also think that 2014 will be (relative to any successful console) pretty sluggish and that the Wii U will never fully recover to be the console we all hoped it would be.

Nice piece, Cheese.

What immediately strikes me is that the Wii U and 3DS followed nearly identical trends. Difference is Nintendo took unprecedented measures to combat the failure of that system -- lower price, ambassador's program, and an excellent software blitz. It worked.

For whatever reason Nintendo has been significantly less willing to take corrective action with the Wii U. The price cut came late, no ambassador style program to coax people into buying the system even before a drop, and the software heavy hitters are still really lagging behind. 

As you note, shipments to the US are improving, but the numbers are still very weak, and the competition is looming. Momentum is so crucial to these systems; I wonder if the Wii U can recover from this now regardless of what Nintendo does.

Good piece of work there!

To be fair Nintendo are pissing me off with raft's of Mario games thinking that this would be the bigger draw. I loved the GC as i feel like Nintendo's time was spent on each of their franchises. 

I just don't think the Wii U will thrive at the price point it is at, it's just too expensive in comparison with the competitors consoles. The 3DS is great value for money on the other hand!

Jacob4000 said:

For whatever reason Nintendo has been significantly less willing to take corrective action with the Wii U. The price cut came late, no ambassador style program to coax people into buying the system even before a drop, and the software heavy hitters are still really lagging behind. 

This is what I don't understand. I think Nintendo panicked a bit with the 3DS because the handheld market has usually been their forte, but it looks as though they're willing to let the Wii U struggle (or even die) as long as the handheld market it there to support them. They also seem surprisingly calm about the situation, with phrases like "people haven't quite understood the concept yet" or "the console will sell when the games arrive". I'm sure it will sell better when the big games arrive (as Wind Waker has demonstrated), but I'm not sure this alone will save the console.

I sat down long and hard thinking about purchasing the Wii U, and eventually decided No. 
Bought a brand new PC instead. Here's why:

Nintendo are stubbornly short sighted.

What's that Nintendo? Didn't expect HD to take off so suddenly? Iwata/Miyamoto openly admit that the Wii should have been HD capable (which obviously means PS3/360 hardware levels). They watch as awful looking gimped versions of AAA Call of Duty fail to sell on their Wii, while 20million copies sell on the PS3 and Xbox 360, but still.... STILL they release a brand new, underpowered follow-up.

WHY DO THIS?????

Nintendo aren't marketing the Wii U.

The Wii U launched in Europe with 26 games. Go to my local Tesco, there are five Wii U games in a small section, mixed with original Wii games. Tesco is the backbone supermarket in this country. EVERYONE goes there. Their games prices undercut GAME/GAMESTATION significantly. The Wii U may as well not exist in these supermarkets.

I've seen 1 television advert for the Wii U in the last 12 months. I've seen 2 PS4 and 1 Xbox One advert in last 2 months.

If you do not market your console NOBODY will buy it.

Jacob4000 said:
For whatever reason Nintendo has been significantly less willing to take corrective action with the Wii U. The price cut came late, no ambassador style program to coax people into buying the system even before a drop, and the software heavy hitters are still really lagging behind. 

1) There is a cost to cutting the price. It's not as simple as saying "Let's cut the price by $50". You have to factor in how much you are willing to lose on each system sold. Nintendo was already basically selling them at cost so cutting the price would create a loss per system at a time when profit was already tight.

2) There basically was an ambassador program. While it wasn't labeled as such, Nintendo offered some fantastic games for just $0.30 to all early adopters.

3) Games is the biggest issue more than anything, but it's the hardest to do anything about (unless you're willing to release inferior products which is something Nintendo isn't going to do). You can work hard to develop a game and get it done as soon as possible, but ultimately they are going to take whatever time is necessary and unfortunately that has meant a lot of delays with Wii U games. Nintendo has a lot of great titles in development, but we're still waiting for them.

fenton_jd said:
STILL they release a brand new, underpowered follow-up.

fenton_jd said:
I sat down long and hard thinking about purchasing the Wii U, and eventually decided No. 
Bought a brand new PC instead. Here's why:
Nintendo aren't marketing the Wii U.

1) There is a cost to cutting the price. It's not as simple as saying "Let's cut the price by $50". You have to factor in how much you are willing to lose on each system sold. Nintendo was already basically selling them at cost so cutting the price would create a loss per system at a time when profit was already tight.

It's actually as simple as saying "do I want to compete this generation?"

It looks to me like Nintendo opted to give up any chance at momentum before the competition arrived because they were watching the bottom line a little too closely. It's understandable that they were worried about profit. But hell, they moved the world to get the Wii U out the door before the competition. If they weren't going to fight tooth and nail to make something of the headstart what was the bloody point?

2) There basically was an ambassador program. While it wasn't labeled as such, Nintendo offered some fantastic games for just $0.30 to all early adopters.

The fact that I don't even know what you're talking about means they didn't push this hard enough. 

Games is the biggest issue more than anything, but it's the hardest to do anything about (unless you're willing to release inferior products which is something Nintendo isn't going to do). You can work hard to develop a game and get it done as soon as possible, but ultimately they are going to take whatever time is necessary and unfortunately that has meant a lot of delays with Wii U games. Nintendo has a lot of great titles in development, but we're still waiting for them.

True enough, but the long delays of seemingly every critical title makes it seem like Nintendo has been reluctant to beef up the necessary man power to get things done. At a time when things desperately, desperately need to get done.

Jacob4000 said

The fact that I don't even know what you're talking about means they didn't push this hard enough.

How could you not know about the 30c/30p Virtual Console sale? It was announced during a direct and was all over the eShop? 

fenton_jd said:

Nintendo aren't marketing the Wii U.

The Wii U launched in Europe with 26 games. Go to my local Tesco, there are five Wii U games in a small section, mixed with original Wii games. Tesco is the backbone supermarket in this country. EVERYONE goes there. Their games prices undercut GAME/GAMESTATION significantly. The Wii U may as well not exist in these supermarkets.

I've seen 1 television advert for the Wii U in the last 12 months. I've seen 2 PS4 and 1 Xbox One advert in last 2 months.

If you do not market your console NOBODY will buy it.

This is a key point, TESCO are THE largest games retailer in the country. FACT! And Nintendo shelf space in their stores are pitiful even the 3DS shelf space is poor and that should be packed full of games to entice the kids! 

Jacob4000 said:

1) There is a cost to cutting the price. It's not as simple as saying "Let's cut the price by $50". You have to factor in how much you are willing to lose on each system sold. Nintendo was already basically selling them at cost so cutting the price would create a loss per system at a time when profit was already tight.

It's actually as simple as saying "do I want to compete this generation?"

It looks to me like Nintendo opted to give up any chance at momentum before the competition arrived because they were watching the bottom line a little too closely. It's understandable that they were worried about profit. But hell, they moved the world to get the Wii U out the door before the competition. If they weren't going to fight tooth and nail to make something of the headstart what was the bloody point?

This I agree with, I don't understand what Nintendo did after 2010....they released barely anything on the Wii and the 3DS was slow to start with. Why on earth had Ninty not utilised this time to get core franchises ready for the launch of Wii U. I genuinely think that if Pikmin 3 had launched with the console it would have done better. Even more obviously I'd say if it had launched with Wind Waker HD it would have done pretty well! 

Nintendo have failed with the Wii U. It will go down as a commercial failure, they can't change it around but it doesnt mean that it won't have great games. 

I still think the N64 and the Gamecube were fantastic consoles with great games and they were considered 'failures' in the eyes of the competition. 

You are all on this forum because you are gamers and Nintendo fans....I don't understand why you need convincing to buy a Wii U. 

It will have Nintendo's core franchises and that's all WE need right? I think we get frustrated because we feel that our voice can help some bone idle Japanese company who base their ethics on innovation but yet miss the obvious needs that are current. I think the more you are attached to Nintendo the more you will be frustrated.

Don't worry, we all know you love Nintendo really

fenton_jd said:
I sat down long and hard thinking about purchasing the Wii U, and eventually decided No. 
Bought a brand new PC instead. Here's why:
Nintendo aren't marketing the Wii U.I don't follow your logic on this one. You chose not to buy a Wii U because you didn't see ads for it? Obviously you know about the system so what would ads do for you?

The blatant lack of advertisement for Wii U, and seemingly unwillingness to work with third parties to secure games on that console. Then simply contrast that with the barrage of 3DS/2DS/Pokemon/Animal Crossing advertisements suggests to me that Nintendo do not consider the Wii U a long term product and are instead more concerned about their Handheld.

The Wii U has the worst third party support of any first year console in a very long time.  I refuse to invest £250 in a games console that is going to miss out on virtually every big third party title you can imagine.  I have a feeling Nintendo are going to bury this console before the end of 2014.

It's extremely frustrating. Nintendo are sitting on the BEST IP catalogue that any company could hope to wish for, they are sitting on billion$$$ in the bank but won't outsource these IP's to remote hands. Nintendo has the potential to the be absolute definition of COOL, but instead they toddle along driving away their own customer base without listening to the demands of the 3million hardcore who DID buy the Wii U on day one.

( Edited 04.11.2013 21:39 by fenton_jd )

In the UK, it's because the advertising has been really selective and too late. I've seen more 3DS/2DS adverts than Wii U adverts in the last 12 months, it doesn't make sense.

Look at the US - they're releasing the Wii Mini over there, when the WIi U needs momentum?

There's supposed to be a big push towards Tesco, but haven't seen anything yet. The expo events were a good push, but again, it's a place for gamers/families looking to play games - they need to push on beyond those who already know about the games.

They don't know how on earth to market the console. There's so much activity on Twitter/Facebook, but these are for people who know about the Wii U already. Why not push towards those who don't?

How could you not know about the 30c/30p Virtual Console sale? It was announced during a direct and was all over the eShop?

Must have missed it. But then I haven't booted up my Wii in over a year, and I don't own a Wii U. Don't remember seeing anything about it in the 3DS eShop either and I check that somewhat regularly.

Jacob4000 said:

How could you not know about the 30c/30p Virtual Console sale? It was announced during a direct and was all over the eShop?

Must have missed it. But then I haven't booted up my Wii in over a year, and I don't own a Wii U. Don't remember seeing anything about it in the 3DS eShop either and I check that somewhat regularly.

It was for the Wii U only...that would make sense why you didn't see it 

jb said:
In the UK, it's because the advertising has been really selective and too late. I've seen more 3DS/2DS adverts than Wii U adverts in the last 12 months, it doesn't make sense.

Look at the US - they're releasing the Wii Mini over there, when the WIi U needs momentum?

There's supposed to be a big push towards Tesco, but haven't seen anything yet. The expo events were a good push, but again, it's a place for gamers/families looking to play games - they need to push on beyond those who already know about the games.

They don't know how on earth to market the console. There's so much activity on Twitter/Facebook, but these are for people who know about the Wii U already. Why not push towards those who don't?

That's right, and now loads of XB1 adverts are airing too, I think Nintendo know that its going to be a big slug to bring about the Wii U's fortunes. They should have really worked on Mario Kart to be ready before Christmas as that would defo shift more units than SM3DL. 

I just don't get how they could be doing so poor after great marketing campaigns for the Wii/DS. At least the new UK advert explaining the 3DS family makes that situation more clear...the Wii U adverts just weren't clear enough. Literally anyone i have talked to about a Wii U just thinks the game pad was an accessory for the Wii...when i explain it to them the confusion on their face just says it all...

Anyone think the other next-gen consoles will crush it?

I think Nintendo have played 2 of their 4 aces (Mario Kart and Smash) and its not enough to really dent the competition. Zelda U and 'Mario Galaxy 3' will be the other 2 main draws to the console and i just don't think either of them will sell as well as Mario Kart.

Unless Nintendo can strike gold as they did with Brain Training, Wii Sports and Wii Fit then i see them sticking quite firmly in 3rd place.

If Nintendo spent as much money on advertising in wider media as they spend on their Nintendo Directs and Cat Mario Show so do I think the Wii U sales would look entirely different. Those kind of advertisements only reach out to already fans and relatively safe consumers that would buy the stuff anyway. It is a weird choice advertising to those who already put every cent they own on Nintendo products.

I would if I was Nintendo rather focus on branching out into wider media that reaches more non-Wii U owning people and making them want to buy them.

This is exactly my problem with the Nintendo Directs. A lot of my gaming friends knew what Nintendo were up to because of e3 coverage and the like, but Nintendo directs are nearly impossible to stream live! If they spent a bit more on YouTube advertising and hosted it there it would get a lot more hits! I know they upload to their YouTube channel afterwards but often gets burried.