The Gaming Future as seen by C3 Page 1

Duggler657 14.03.2012#1

Everybody in and out of the gaming industry pretty much agrees we are at an impasse and that there is going to be some big changes within the structure of the video game market. (By the way, hello fellow citizens of Cubed 3! It's been a while.)

I figured I'd make this thread to give people a separate space to hash out their thoughts as I've seen a lot about the future of the industry discussed here on C3 and because the future of gaming as of now is a messy, speculative topic.

This slide presentation was recently given at the annual GDC. While dry and 26 minutes long it does a good job of number crunching and analyzing things in a rational manner. I found it intriguing and thought I'd share to get the topic rolling.

When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?

View another webinar from Ben Cousins

While I don't see video games changing for the bad as the market and number of gamers is larger than ever, I feel as though we are at the end of an era. The market has already started to shift dramatically and has people on edge.

So what are your thoughts? As the slides imply do you think consoles will become just a novelty item? Or is the idea of dedicated game devices dying becoming a self fulfilling prophecy? And what about the medium as a whole... Games have gotten bigger and BIGGER. Will in the far future we see games as the dominant form of entertainment and will this force companies like Pixar to ditch the movie industry and enter games? Your thoughts, ideas and emotions on the topic because, damned it, if anybody can make sense of such a subject it's the guys and gals of this site! What is our future?

( Edited 14.03.2012 05:15 by Duggler657 )

Edit this post:

Everybody in and out of the gaming industry pretty much agrees we are at an impasse and that there is going to be some big changes within the structure of the video game market. (By the way, hello fellow citizens of Cubed 3! It's been a while.)

I figured I'd make this thread to give people a separate space to hash out their thoughts as I've seen a lot about the future of the industry discussed here on C3 and because the future of gaming as of now is a messy, speculative topic.

This slide presentation was recently given at the annual GDC. While dry and 26 minutes long it does a good job of number crunching and analyzing things in a rational manner. I found it intriguing and thought I'd share to get the topic rolling.

<div style="width:425px" id="__ss_11984223"> <strong style="display:block;margin:12px 0 4px"><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/bcousins/when-the-consoles-die-what-comes-next" title="When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?" target="_blank">When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?</a></strong> <iframe src="http://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/11984223" width="425" height="355" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no"></iframe> <div style="padding:5px 0 12px"> View another <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/" target="_blank">webinar</a> from <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/bcousins" target="_blank">Ben Cousins</a> </div> </div>

While I don't see video games changing for the bad as the market and number of gamers is larger than ever, I  feel as though we are at the end of an era. The market has already started to shift dramatically and has people on edge.

So what are your thoughts? As the slides imply do you think consoles will become just a novelty item? Or is the idea of dedicated game devices dying becoming a self fulfilling prophecy? And what about the medium as a whole... Games have gotten bigger and BIGGER. Will in the far future we see games as the dominant form of entertainment and will this force companies like Pixar to ditch the movie industry and enter games? Your thoughts, ideas and emotions on the topic because, damned it, if anybody can make sense of such a subject it's the guys and gals of this site! What [i]is[/i] our future?

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bornforthis43 14.03.2012#2

Yea, I saw this yesterday. There were a lot of points I disagreed with. When I have time, I'll re-watch it and post my analysis.

Marzeee 14.03.2012#3

Smilie ... It's basically all just a lot of nonsense.

It some pretentious guy waffling on about things we've been hearing about for the past 2 years or so and acting like he can predict what's going to happen in the future. What's the purpose of his presentation? I can't find one, personally. Is he trying to put fear into companies that make these consoles and force his opinion across so they stop making them? That's the only reasoning behind that I can think of.

Martin_ 15.03.2012#4

Personally, I think he's right.

Duggler657 17.03.2012#5

Like I said, what appealed to me about this guy's argument was just his use of numbers. Such a rational analysis and not really cheering for any particular side.

I can see his points coming true in the future, absolutely, but I can also see them not coming true. It's the future and anything can happen, but here's what I think will come to pass.

What I see happening is smartphones and tablet computers evolving to a point that is just as good as consoles. (We're nearly there.) After that it's just a matter of time until those platforms become recognized as being legitimate devices to play "AAA" titles. (And all that takes is one Mario, or Pokemon, or Halo. A "Killer app.") That being said, I have a confession to make, I find it hard to recognize an i-Pad or i-Phone as a gaming device.

* Insert your shocked expressions at my discrimination here! Smilie *

It's like trying to convince my Dad that Slayer really is music. He just can't make the mental jump as it's neither his aesthetic nor what he grew up with. And that is probably the best analogy for the scenario I think we are about to enter. A scenario which will result in a generation gap. Now, my Dad may not think Slayer is music, but he loves the Beatles and I love 'em too. Heck, those four guys helped to reinvent the music that would appear in the last half of the 20th century.
It is my belief that the future generation of gamers will, of course, recognize and even use consoles as a platform for gaming, but we, the old generation, may primarily still use consoles over the "i" platforms and the Smartphones.

i-Pads and the like are neither my aesthetic nor what I grew up with. (They even cause me to defy convention by starting this sentence with a lowercase letter... GAH!) For a new generation though it will be their aesthetic and it will be what they grow up with. I will admit there are really good games starting to appear on those new platforms, but it won't be the quality of the games that legitimizes and brings them to the forefront of the gaming landscape, it will be the gamers.

So that's my take. The platform will come of age, but only when the gamers do. Oh, and to anybody on the internet reading this who doesn't know who the beatles are... you are young enough to Google them. Smilie

Edit this post:

Like I said, what appealed to me about this guy's argument was just his use of numbers. Such a rational analysis and not really cheering for any particular side.

I can see his points coming true in the future, absolutely, but I can also see them not coming true. It's the future and anything can happen, but here's what I think will come to pass.

What I see happening is smartphones and tablet computers evolving to a point that is just as good as consoles. (We're nearly there.) After that it's just a matter of time until those platforms become recognized as being legitimate devices to play "AAA" titles. (And all that takes is one Mario, or Pokemon, or Halo. A "Killer app.") That being said, I have a confession to make, I find it hard to recognize an i-Pad or i-Phone as a gaming device.

* Insert your shocked expressions at my discrimination here! :eek: *

It's like trying to convince my Dad that Slayer really is music. He just can't make the mental jump as it's neither his aesthetic nor what he grew up with. And that is probably the best analogy for the scenario I think we are about to enter. A scenario which will result in  a generation gap. Now, my Dad may not think Slayer is music, but he loves the Beatles and I love 'em too. Heck, those four guys helped to reinvent the music that would appear in the last half of the 20th century.  
It is my belief that the future generation of gamers will, of course, recognize and even use consoles as a platform for gaming, but we, the [i]old[/i] generation, may primarily still use consoles over the "i" platforms and the Smartphones.

i-Pads and the like are neither my aesthetic nor what I grew up with. (They even cause me to defy convention by starting this sentence with a lowercase letter... GAH!) For a new generation though it [i]will[/i] be their aesthetic and it [i]will[/i] be what they grow up with. I will admit there are really good games starting to appear on those new platforms, but it won't be the quality of the games that legitimizes and brings them to the forefront of the gaming landscape, it will be the gamers.

So that's my take. The platform will come of age, but only when the gamers do. Oh, and to anybody on the internet reading this who doesn't know who the beatles are... you are young enough to Google them. ;)

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Martin_ 17.03.2012#6

I just think that many of the old guard (us) find it unbearable to admit that our days of having it how we like it are numbered. Consoles are on the way out. In a way, consoles are becoming a sort of 'middleman' between these do-anything handheld devices and PCs. If you're that stoked about hardcore gaming in the future, you will have a powerful PC. If not, you will have one of these do-anything devices. Consoles and PSPs etc will die.

Cheesing It Up 17.03.2012#7

I will watch the video when I have time. I cannot see even the vaguest threat from a smartphone/tablet to a home console though. Surely they're going to erode portables if anything? And even then they clearly can't replace them, because they don't have buttons. Consoles still have a purpose because nothing can do what they do. The only threat is a PC, but that's always been the case. I can't see how anything has changed in the last few years, other than consoles have become more multifunctional. Consoles are more popular than ever, so I don't see any "trend" emerging.

Duggler657 18.03.2012#8

Great new Warren Spector interview. I'm always impressed with how down to Earth this guy seems.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-03-16-warren-spector-a-lifetime-of-achievements

And here is his opinion on the future of consoles-

Show Spoiler

Q: You bring up an interesting point about the differences now between Triple-A development and all these emerging markets with mobile and social. I find it interesting in terms of the position you're in now with Disney, because Disney has clearly made a move away from the console platforms overall. You're one of the last guys kind of working on consoles. It seems like they've had that transition, and of course they have Playdom doing the social stuff. So what is that like for you? And do you want to actually transition into iOS or tablets or anything like that?

Warren Spector: Well, I'd say Disney is transitioning as opposed to "has transitioned." This is a really strange time in the game business. Usually, we have these seismic shifts where a hardware generation ends and another one just starts and everything changes, or we all have to move from PCs to consoles or something. This may seem sudden, but having seen sudden changes in the past, this seems like a very gradual move. So, I think over the next 3 to 5 years, you're going to see lots of people changing the way they approach consoles. I don't know that console gaming will ever go away. I think it's going to become more - god I said I would never get into the business of prediction, but here I go - I think what you're going to see is an increasing sort of stratification, where you see fewer, much higher end games that continue to do exceptionally well on the console.
But that's going to leave a lot of people behind. It's a lot like when, frankly, the first CDs came around and everybody at Origin [Systems] was looking at this silver disk going "oh my god, what happens when people with more money than we have start filling that thing with assets?" Well now, I mean, once you start actually doing Pixar quality interactive entertainment, there aren't going to be a lot of companies who can afford to do that. I hope Disney continues to be one of them. But the reality is, most of us are going to have to find a way to become part of the interconnected gaming ecosystem and not compete with real-time interactive Pixar movies.

So, I'm right there, I'm trying to figure out what the future holds, I'm trying to figure out how do I continue to make the kinds of relatively deep, player driven experiences that I want to do, not just on the console, but on mobile phones, etc. You ask how do I feel about iOS: I mean, if the opportunity were to present itself, if I ever left Disney, not that I'm planning on doing that - we have over 700 people around the world working on our new game now. But I would love to do a game with four guys. And the iOS, or mobile platforms are the place where you can actually do that again. So, I have a strong interest in mobile games, and I would love to try that. I think a lot about "how do I bring that idea that playstyle matters and choice and consequence gaming, character-driven story stuff, to that little iPhone or the little Android device?" No one has really done that, and so for me personally, I'm looking at that as an opportunity and hoping I get a chance to do it.

Cheesing it up said:
Consoles are more popular than ever, so I don't see any "trend" emerging.

That's what facinates me so much about all this talk of gloom and doom. I think, as I said before, we are at an impasse, but more people than ever play videogames. And you are absolutely right, consoles sell more now than they ever have. I really hope the guys like Spector are right.

Edit this post:

Great new Warren Spector interview. I'm always impressed with how down to Earth this guy seems.
[url=http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-03-16-warren-spector-a-lifetime-of-achievements]http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-03-16-warren-spector-a-lifetime-of-achievements[/url]

And here is his opinion on the future of consoles-
[spoiler][quote][b]Q:[/b] You bring up an interesting point about the differences now between Triple-A development and all these emerging markets with mobile and social. I find it interesting in terms of the position you're in now with Disney, because Disney has clearly made a move away from the console platforms overall. You're one of the last guys kind of working on consoles. It seems like they've had that transition, and of course they have Playdom doing the social stuff. So what is that like for you? And do you want to actually transition into iOS or tablets or anything like that?

[b]Warren Spector:[/b] Well, I'd say Disney is transitioning as opposed to "has transitioned."  This is a really strange time in the game business. Usually, we have these seismic shifts where a hardware generation ends and another one just starts and everything changes, or we all have to move from PCs to consoles or something. This may seem sudden, but having seen sudden changes in the past, this seems like a very gradual move. So, I think over the next 3 to 5 years, you're going to see lots of people changing the way they approach consoles. I don't know that console gaming will ever go away. I think it's going to become more - god I said I would never get into the business of prediction, but here I go - I think what you're going to see is an increasing sort of stratification, where you see fewer, much higher end games that continue to do exceptionally well on the console.
But that's going to leave a lot of people behind.  It's a lot like when, frankly, the first CDs came around and everybody at Origin [Systems] was looking at this silver disk going "oh my god, what happens when people with more money than we have start filling that thing with assets?" Well now, I mean, once you start actually doing Pixar quality interactive entertainment, there aren't going to be a lot of companies who can afford to do that. I hope Disney continues to be one of them. But the reality is, most of us are going to have to find a way to become part of the interconnected gaming ecosystem and not compete with real-time interactive Pixar movies.

So, I'm right there, I'm trying to figure out what the future holds, I'm trying to figure out how do I continue to make the kinds of relatively deep, player driven experiences that I want to do, not just on the console, but on mobile phones, etc. You ask how do I feel about iOS: I mean, if the opportunity were to present itself, if I ever left Disney, not that I'm planning on doing that - we have over 700 people around the world working on our new game now. But I would love to do a game with four guys. And the iOS, or mobile platforms are the place where you can actually do that again. So, I have a strong interest in mobile games, and I would love to try that. I think a lot about "how do I bring that idea that playstyle matters and choice and consequence gaming, character-driven story stuff, to that little iPhone or the little Android device?" No one has really done that, and so for me personally, I'm looking at that as an opportunity and hoping I get a chance to do it.[/quote][/spoiler]
[quote][b]Cheesing it up said:[/b]
Consoles are more popular than ever, so I don't see any "trend" emerging.[/quote]
That's what facinates me so much about all this talk of gloom and doom. I think, as I said before, we are at an impasse, but more people than ever play videogames. And you are absolutely right, consoles sell more now than they ever have. I really hope the guys like Spector are right.

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