1) Super_hyped never said that.
The implication was there in the statement that the XB1 and PS4 currently have no install base and are thus no more worthy of BF4 than the Wii U is. I find this statement to be intentionally blind to reality -- hence my question do any of you think a BF4 Wii U edition would outsell its XB1 and PS4 counterparts?
2) It doesn't have to outsell the other versions to make money or be successful.
There's a difference between being successful and being worth the effort. If a port on Wii U turned a profit, technically it's successful. But if the same resources could be applied somewhere else for more profit, then it's not worth the time and money to develop on Wii U.
People make the assumption that publishers have endless development teams ready to churn out software. The reality is these resources have to be prioritized; and when it comes down to it, do you prioritize the Wii U -- where it might be possible to be successful in the strictest sense of the word -- or other systems where success is more likely to be found on a larger scale.
3) Based on the sales of other Wii U third party games, I wouldn't consider it out of the realm of possibilities. Most people think third party titles have sold terribly on Wii U because they compare raw sales numbers between the PS3/360 and Wii U. But that is because the PS3/360 each have an install base 22x Wii U's. If you look at the attach rates for those same games you will see that most of the time the Wii U versions sell basically the same. Given that and the fact that (for at least a little while) Wii U will have the largest install base there is no reason to believe any third party game wouldn't have similar sales.
I believe I've already debated with you on this point - in a lot of cases (Call of Duty was the one we spoke about previously, I think) attach rate didn't favor the Wii U at all. In some cases, it might paint a marginally better picture. The reality is, if developers felt their projects had been successful, or if their future projects could be successful on Wii U, then they'd be working on games for the system. As it is, major publishers are taking a wait and see approach because they don't currently see an opportunity to make money.
If anything, I would expect BF4 to follow Call of Duty's sales curve on Wii U - AKA not good.
More attach-rate talk that went on longer than I expected in the spoiler tag:
This is a point that could be debated much longer, because there is some logic to it. At a certain percentage of a very limited install-base, you might equivalently say a product was just as successful. On the other hand, though, that does little to make an accountant feel better about the bottom line. Your up front costs to develop a game don't shrink just because the Wii U has a small install-base. I doubt it's of much comfort that game X matched the attach rate on the PS3 and 360, but still only managed to sell in the thousands.
I think with a new system, there's also the expectation that the attach rate will be much higher than it otherwise would be on more established systems, because there's less competition. For example, if you want a shooter on Wii U, what are you going to buy? Hell if you want any decent game regardless of genre you only have a dozen or so options at best. But if you want a shooter on 360 and PS3, you could literally spend the entire day talking about the different choices just in that one genre.
This is what's concerning, I think. The attach-rate should theoretically already be inflated due to low competition, but we're only seeing matching rates at best. Again, a point that could be taken much further, but I don't see the Wii U matching attach rates in some cases (while clearly missing them in others) is really evidence of success, and it looks like developers in general agree. It seems like more of an attempt to make the best of a bleak situation.
Anyhow, to summarize, I think a lot of Nintendo fans get hyped on the idea that publishers like to screw it to Nintendo. No, they just like to make money.
edit:
That's a lot of man hours. Thousands? At least 10 employees working full time solely on porting an engine for weeks on end...I didn't know it took that amount of work. That would be a waste of resources, absolutely. Gee. Is the WiiU that complex of a console to develop for?
It doesn't take much for manhours to add up. Ten employees working 40 hours a week (and in general programmers work much longer hours than that) for two and a half weeks crosses the "thousand man hour" threshold.
It's not necessarily that the Wii U is so uniquely complex - it's not. It's just that this business is typicaly over-simplified by people who don't really understand the complexities of game development. Even a "simple-port" takes quite a bit of money and development time. It's rarely as trivial as people assume to port a game (or even just an engine). Easier than something brand new? Absolutely. But still not something programmer Joe finishes up over a coffee on his lunch break.
( Edited 02.07.2013 21:02 by Jacob4000 )